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Thread: 2016 a wasted opportunity

  1. #11
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    I still believe the window is open considering the Cardinals were the only team in the top 10 on both offense and defense. Additionally they had a 1,000 yd receiver (John Brown) really hurt all year and a DPOY (Honey Badger) not at full strength at any time. There are some question marks on the defense for 2017 but I expect the offense to be better.

    SK needs to hit a home run in the draft and due to the under-perfomance of Special Teams causing 4 more losses the draft picks are at a higher position to be able to get "game changers." SK also needs to get a couple of "SK specials" to round out the depth considering the age of some of the replacements.

    All of the compensatory picks coming in 2018 might help SK make trades using 2018 picks to some teams in order to gain additional picks in 2017. Again - the Cards will have plenty of $$ to be active in FA next year so maybe trading picks in 2018 to get more help with young players in 2017 is a worthwhile strategy. In other words emphasize draft in 2017 with idea to get a couple of big free agents in 2018 to plug top 2-3 holes.
    Last edited by SurpriseCardFan; 03-13-2017 at 11:24 AM.

  2. #12
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    Thats a terrible mindset. Carson and Larry are still here. Why on earth would we not be competitive this year? 2017 is the last push. The only reason you think 2016 was the final window was because a TV show told you so.


    Dont worry, youll have 2018 and beyond to suck and rebuild for the future.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaz View Post
    Thats a terrible mindset. Carson and Larry are still here. Why on earth would we not be competitive this year? 2017 is the last push. The only reason you think 2016 was the final window was because a TV show told you so.


    Dont worry, youll have 2018 and beyond to suck and rebuild for the future.
    Unless we hit a major home run in the draft I think this season could be worse then last season. Then again I could be wrong just my opinion. Do you remember the exodus in San Fran, it's not at that level but not far from it.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redbirdfan62 View Post
    Unless we hit a major home run in the draft I think this season could be worse then last season. Then again I could be wrong just my opinion. Do you remember the exodus in San Fran, it's not at that level but not far from it.
    You guys are funny.

    Here's the reality: The 2015 and 2016 teams were not THAT much different. Both were ten-win teams by the metrics (which is usually a top-5 team and a contender.)

    The 2015 team caught some breaks, and won almost all the close games.

    That resulted in 13 wins in a league where the margin between winning and losing is RAZOR thin (Detroit was losing in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games!!!! They are a BAD team masquerading as a playoff team because they caught breaks and won close games that could have gone either way with a bad call or bad bounce.)

    The 2016 team caught ZERO breaks, lost all the close games, and had a dumpster fire on ST.

    That resulted in a 7-8-1 record for a team that just as easily could have been 10-6, or 11-5, or even 12-4.

    R-E-L-A-X
    Last edited by WVcardsFan; 03-13-2017 at 07:06 PM.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by WVcardsFan View Post
    You guys are funny.

    Here's the reality: The 2015 and 2016 teams were not THAT much different. Both were ten-win teams by the metrics (which is usually a top-5 team and a contender.)

    The 2015 team caught some breaks, and won almost all the close games.

    That resulted in 13 wins in a league where the margin between winning and losing is RAZOR thin (Detroit was losing in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games!!!! They are a BAD team masquerading as a playoff team because they caught breaks and won close games that could have gone either way with a bad call or bad bounce.)

    The 2016 team caught ZERO breaks, lost all the close games, and had a dumpster fire on ST.

    That resulted in a 7-8-1 record for a team that just as easily could have been 10-6, or 11-5, or even 12-4.

    R-E-L-A-X

    I agree with most you said.

    ST Coach Amos Jones cost us heavily. He continued to put players in position to lose and that is a FACT!

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by azbmxican View Post
    I agree with most you said.

    ST Coach Amos Jones cost us heavily. He continued to put players in position to lose and that is a FACT!
    It has yet to be seen what steps will be taken. Here's what HAS happened:

    Butler out, Wile (rookie drafted?) in.

    Catanzaro out, Dawson in.

    Health of crucial ST guys (Bethel, Martin, Fua, JaBrown) better.

    Amos Jones is certainly the elephant in the room.

    We'll see.

    I do think the ST Unit will play better this year. I also don't think Arizona will go 1-5 in close games.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by WVcardsFan View Post
    You guys are funny.

    Here's the reality: The 2015 and 2016 teams were not THAT much different. Both were ten-win teams by the metrics (which is usually a top-5 team and a contender.)

    The 2015 team caught some breaks, and won almost all the close games.

    That resulted in 13 wins in a league where the margin between winning and losing is RAZOR thin (Detroit was losing in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games!!!! They are a BAD team masquerading as a playoff team because they caught breaks and won close games that could have gone either way with a bad call or bad bounce.)

    The 2016 team caught ZERO breaks, lost all the close games, and had a dumpster fire on ST.

    That resulted in a 7-8-1 record for a team that just as easily could have been 10-6, or 11-5, or even 12-4.

    R-E-L-A-X
    The 2015 team had a healthy John Brown and a somewhat productive Michael Floyd and Juran Brown. We scored more points and let up fewer points by big margin. About 7.5 points a game on average. That's a huge number in point differential. While are d was statistically better in total yards it was worse inside the 20's and our O was a scoring machine. You can't ignore the point differential it's just to big to just be about breaks over 16 games.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    You can't ignore the point differential it's just to big to just be about breaks over 16 games.
    In terms of outliers, sure you can.

    Arizona had a PD of +56 in 2016 (which was actually 4th best in the NFC and 7th best in the NFL.)

    Denver won the Super Bowl with a PD of +59 in 2015.

    Cardinals caught a lot of breaks in 2015. They weren't as dominant as a 13-3 team with a bloated PD would indicate.

    Cardinals caught zero breaks in 2016. They were much, much better (4th best PD in NFC) than 7-8-1 would indicate.

    Most of the metrics for both seasons line up. Point differential doesn't. And I agree that you cannot ENTIRELY chalk up the difference to the random swing in TO diff (+9 to even) and the ST gaffes, but those certainly played a big role. If you want to argue that RZ efficiency lagged, I would give you that, too. But that's fixable, and could have just been a fluke.

    Question: Would this board be flying off the handle solely based on the team's downturn in RZ efficiency from '15 to '16?

    Because that's the one legitimate concern, IMO. But one that might not even be a concern if it was just random variance.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by WVcardsFan View Post
    In terms of outliers, sure you can.

    Arizona had a PD of +56 in 2016 (which was actually 4th best in the NFC and 7th best in the NFL.)

    Denver won the Super Bowl with a PD of +59 in 2015.

    Cardinals caught a lot of breaks in 2015. They weren't as dominant as a 13-3 team with a bloated PD would indicate.

    Cardinals caught zero breaks in 2016. They were much, much better (4th best PD in NFC) than 7-8-1 would indicate.

    Most of the metrics for both seasons line up. Point differential doesn't. And I agree that you cannot ENTIRELY chalk up the difference to the random swing in TO diff (+9 to even) and the ST gaffes, but those certainly played a big role. If you want to argue that RZ efficiency lagged, I would give you that, too. But that's fixable, and could have just been a fluke.

    Question: Would this board be flying off the handle solely based on the team's downturn in RZ efficiency from '15 to '16?

    Because that's the one legitimate concern, IMO. But one that might not even be a concern if it was just random variance.
    It could be random variance but in 2015 Carolina was 1 and we were 2 not to mention NE was 3 the Seahawks were 4. In 2016 New England was 1 and Atlanta was 2. 2014 New England was 1 and Seattle was 2.

    Denver may well have been the variance. Denver had by far the best D in the league in 2015. The lead in almost every category except points allowed where they were still stingy. The reason they didn't have a bigger point differential is because they actually turned the ball over more then they created turnovers during the regular season. When the put Manning back in for the playoff run there turnover ratio switched and they outright dominated extremely highly talented Offenses with elite QB's. The Cardinals last year faced a handful of top QB's. The first game against Seattle Wilson was highly limited.

    Atlanta put up 38 on us. NO put up 48 on us, a bad Carolina team put up 30 on us. Those were teams with 3 veteran elite QB's and they torched us. Nobody torched Denver in 2015.

    Regarding special teams which were awful. Coverage on special teams has a lot to do with the depth of your roster. It can't be discounted as if it's really a fluke when your special teams are consistently giving up field position to the opposition. That's the sign of a bad team.
    Last edited by Biggs; 03-14-2017 at 07:42 AM.

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