Hall of Fame
This is the best thing for Cards. Whenever they're over-hyped, they seem to get cocky, complacent. They need some material to stew, chew on. They need to just think that noone will ever respect them til they win a ring. Then draft that guy out of Temple who is hungry, was a walk on. Reminds me of David Johnson in some ways.Originally Posted by Redbirdfan62
GA Bulldogs Cards Fan
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Ive always felt that the real rankings are the odds to win the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. The Cardinals are right in the middle which means as it stands right now they figure to win about 8 games next season...
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Hall of Fame
Um. What?????
You realize that all Vegas odds are is a reflection of public perception, right?
Vegas books don't want to gamble. They want equal money on each side so they can just take the 10% vig and be done with it.
Super Moderator
Public perception used to be a bigger factor years ago, but today with incredible information around, the lines, odds and prices are just about right as they relate to reality. The wise guys and whales who bet a lot of money are pretty tuned in to whats happening.
Also, there are numerous times when the casinos do not want equal sides and just collect the vig. If/when they have information they will gladly trap the public. But they have the option obviously to lay off whatever they need to.
If you look at the future prices on the NFL, it is an excellent representation of each team's chances to win in relation to the other teams...
Hall of Fame
No. It isn't.
It's a representation of what Vegas believes the public believes.
The O/U wins on teams like Dallas will also be artificially inflated, since Vegas smartly puts a premium on teams adored by the stupid betting public.
Conversely, teams like Arizona are always undervalued, because Vegas needs to encourage action on the OVER from a public who sees "Cardinals" and lazily thinks "oh, they always stink."
As for your contention that it's a great predictor, false again. And Vegas is OK with that.
Books don't care that they set the Atlanta O/U at 6.5 wins and they won 11. All they care about is that they had equal money on each side. They NEVER want to be exposed, no matter what type of "information" they have. Vegas likes sure things. The 10% scoop on a balanced book is perfection to them.
Super Moderator
Many professionals and serious big money players do quite a bit of research and analysis and some do quite well. Well enough to earn a living doing it.
If the O/U on Dallas is always inflated then the books would be setting themselves up to get buried by intelligent players. For the most part, they are going to set the line based on what they think it should be and THAT will usually improve their chances of equal money being bet on each side.
The Cardinals weren't undervalued last year. They were one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
I will take the Las Vegas betting favorites any day over any other source as being the most accurate predictor of games.
I worked in the industry for many years in all parts of Nevada and I can tell you that there are certain times the sports books intentionally DO NOT lay their action off to get equal betting. In fact, there are some services and players who do their best to try to find out when this happens. For the most part, they like equal side betting, but that is very hard to get sometimes, especially if you allow your line to be set by public opinion which is a recipe for disaster.
The truth is is that the public's opinion is only a small factor, if any, in setting the lines and odds. To think that the sports books do it based on that is laughable. They don't really care about public opinion. If they set a "bad" number designed to be adjusted for public opinion, the sharps will pound the bad lines with big money and then the books run the risk of being middled.
Smart managers of sportsbooks don’t value public opinion when it comes creating their odds. It’s much better for them to post accurate lines from the start and not worry about where the public is going with action. Sharp bettors are the largest worry for the oddsmakers and moving a market drastically puts them into a potential nightmare scenario where they can be arbitraged and lose both sides of a market...
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