
Originally Posted by
WVcardsFan
No. It isn't.
It's a representation of what Vegas believes the public believes.
The O/U wins on teams like Dallas will also be artificially inflated, since Vegas smartly puts a premium on teams adored by the stupid betting public.
Conversely, teams like Arizona are always undervalued, because Vegas needs to encourage action on the OVER from a public who sees "Cardinals" and lazily thinks "oh, they always stink."
As for your contention that it's a great predictor, false again. And Vegas is OK with that.
Books don't care that they set the Atlanta O/U at 6.5 wins and they won 11. All they care about is that they had equal money on each side. They NEVER want to be exposed, no matter what type of "information" they have. Vegas likes sure things. The 10% scoop on a balanced book is perfection to them.