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Thread: Will Palmer be back in 2018?

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardCore View Post
    That was (ahem) somebody else I think.....
    It was. But I hate giving him the attention he so desperately craves with his ridiculous hot takes.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by WVcardsFan View Post
    Everything you are saying would be completely logical if the numbers backed you up. Again, Palmer's stats were actually better over the first half, except for TD. And it wasn't because of garbage time, as you postulated in an earlier post. If anything, Palmer's first half numbers suffered from the fact that the team was behind so much. Remember, four of his six INT in the first half of the season came in the 4th quarter at Buffalo when he was forcing the ball, trying to make SOMETHING happen.

    Were there times when he should have gotten off the deep ball quicker and progressed down to the intermediate/underneath routes? Sure. But keep in mind, over those first 7 games, Palmer was still operating under the assumption that John Brown was 100% and able to get separation (he wasn't) and that Michael Floyd was sober (he wasn't.)

    Obviously, Palmer was nowhere near what he was in 2015, but none of us should have expected him to be.

    Saying he was measurably better over the 2nd half of the season simply isn't true, and saying it was because "the pressure was off" (as others have, ahem) is absurd.
    He was much better in the second half. Aries argument on pressure is based on how he feels. I don't agree with him, however I don't agree at all with your stat argument. Here's some stats to ponder. The team averaged over a TD more per game over the second half of the season. You can't make the argument that it's a team game and Palmer was hampered by the team but was better in the first half than the second half if the team was producing better in the second half. Again I saw it with my own eyes. Palmer made better decisions with the ball in the second half. He got rid of the ball quicker in the second half. He shortened his throws in the second half, took less sacks, less fumbles and threw more TD's. In the context of the team Palmer was better and the team numbers, points, back me up. He threw shorter passes it showed up in his stats, he threw more TD's it showed up in his stats. He put the ball on the turf less, it showed up in the stats. He made better decisions, it showed up in the points we scored and it was visible from the stands or your tv.

    FYI I really respect your arguments and enjoy the back and forth. I'm not trying to attack you. I cherry pick stats all the time to make an argument. What's interesting for me is I love the QB stat on YPA. I always believed that a high YPA shows a QB driving his team down the field when he throws. The further the more productive. As you pointed out Palmer was actually better in this stat over the first half. However since he was throwing longer, he was taking more sacks, fumbling more and the team wasn't scoring as many points. It's totally counter intuitive that a shorter YPA would translate to more points. However since he is fumbling less, getting sacked less and having shorter down and distance, in this case it actually translated into more points and TD's. That's the real job of an NFL QB. Productive drives that lead to field position and ultimately points.

    I enjoy a good football argument. Stats are always interesting to argue because I suspect none of us are statisticians and football unlike baseball has limited stats under highly variable conditions based on the personal on the field and the teams you're playing. Still it makes you think about the game which I love.
    Last edited by Biggs; 05-18-2017 at 08:44 PM.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    He was much better in the second half. Aries argument on pressure is based on how he feels. I don't agree with him, however I don't agree at all with your stat argument. Here's some stats to ponder. The team averaged over a TD more per game over the second half of the season. You can't make the argument that it's a team game and Palmer was hampered by the team but was better in the first half than the second half if the team was producing better in the second half. Again I saw it with my own eyes. Palmer made better decisions with the ball in the second half. He got rid of the ball quicker in the second half. He shortened his throws in the second half, took less sacks, less fumbles and threw more TD's. In the context of the team Palmer was better and the team numbers, points, back me up. He threw shorter passes it showed up in his stats, he threw more TD's it showed up in his stats. He put the ball on the turf less, it showed up in the stats. He made better decisions, it showed up in the points we scored and it was visible from the stands or your tv.

    FYI I really respect your arguments and enjoy the back and forth. I'm not trying to attack you. I cherry pick stats all the time to make an argument. What's interesting for me is I love the QB stat on YPA. I always believed that a high YPA shows a QB driving his team down the field when he throws. The further the more productive. As you pointed out Palmer was actually better in this stat over the first half. However since he was throwing longer, he was taking more sacks, fumbling more and the team wasn't scoring as many points. It's totally counter intuitive that a shorter YPA would translate to more points. However since he is fumbling less, getting sacked less and having shorter down and distance, in this case it actually translated into more points and TD's. That's the real job of an NFL QB. Productive drives that lead to field position and ultimately points.

    I enjoy a good football argument. Stats are always interesting to argue because I suspect none of us are statisticians and football unlike baseball has limited stats under highly variable conditions based on the personal on the field and the teams you're playing. Still it makes you think about the game which I love.
    I don't think you're attacking, and you obviously know your stuff.

    I just think maybe (for whatever reason) what you believe happened, and what actually happened, might be two different things. Kinda like (and this is admittedly a horrible analogy other than the theory of selective memory behind it) when, after you've been broken up with your girlfriend for 5 years, you look back (as long as she wasn't psycho) and tend to remember the good times more than bad.

    I agree 100% with you about metrics in football being limited (unlike baseball, which is truly an individual sport,) but an interesting stat about Palmer is that he was either really good, good, or really bad, with one HORRID game. There was really no "meh" or "kinda ok." He had only one game with a passer rating between 65 and 80, which is great for our comparison, because it happened in his 8th game (vs SF) so it allows us to eliminate his very middle-of-the-road game to conveniently split up his season into two 7 game increments.

    Palmer had 4 really good games out of the first 7 (rating of 90+), with his worst rating of those 4 a 94.4---- and only 3 really good games over the last 7, although a 4th was THISCLOSE (89.3.)

    He had only one "bad game" (rating under 65) during the first 7, although it was a MASSIVE stinker (36.0 vs Buffalo), while he had 2 sub 65 games over his last 7.

    Again, I think maybe? his performance against Buffalo was SOOOOO bad, at a time where fans were still calling the Patriots mess-up a fluke and expecting us to roll the Bills, that it resonated, and blurred his entire first half. But in those first 7 games, he had 4 where he threw zero INT, another two where he threw one, and the breakdown in Buffalo where he threw 4 in the 4th quarter alone.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    He was much better in the second half. Aries argument on pressure is based on how he feels. I don't agree with him, however I don't agree at all with your stat argument. Here's some stats to ponder. The team averaged over a TD more per game over the second half of the season. You can't make the argument that it's a team game and Palmer was hampered by the team but was better in the first half than the second half if the team was producing better in the second half. Again I saw it with my own eyes. Palmer made better decisions with the ball in the second half. He got rid of the ball quicker in the second half. He shortened his throws in the second half, took less sacks, less fumbles and threw more TD's. In the context of the team Palmer was better and the team numbers, points, back me up. He threw shorter passes it showed up in his stats, he threw more TD's it showed up in his stats. He put the ball on the turf less, it showed up in the stats. He made better decisions, it showed up in the points we scored and it was visible from the stands or your tv.

    .
    Yes Palmer did "look better" in the second half. A LOT of that goes to David Johnson. The defenses around the league realized who they were dealing with. They had to primarily plan for David. Props to CP and BA in particular for adjusting to what was clear in the first half: Palmer's long ball is not what it used to be. This was not a big strike offense in the second half. BA always talked about "emptying the bullets" by going deep 5-6 times a game but with a limited Oline and a limited CP he couldn't anymore.

    It will be very interesting to observe CP in the first half of this year with many of the previous excuses gone. David Johnson will open up big opportunities in this offense if CP is up to it.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by AriS. View Post
    Yes Palmer did "look better" in the second half. A LOT of that goes to David Johnson. The defenses around the league realized who they were dealing with. They had to primarily plan for David. Props to CP and BA in particular for adjusting to what was clear in the first half: Palmer's long ball is not what it used to be. This was not a big strike offense in the second half. BA always talked about "emptying the bullets" by going deep 5-6 times a game but with a limited Oline and a limited CP he couldn't anymore.

    It will be very interesting to observe CP in the first half of this year with many of the previous excuses gone. David Johnson will open up big opportunities in this offense if CP is up to it.
    More Alt reality.

    We all know that you haven't worked out the difference between fact and fiction, but to those who don't have an axe to grind, WV has shown conclusively that your David Johnson take in the second half is not supported by anything beyond your delusional dislike of CP.

  6. #46
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    Why not? Wouldn't you want to defend your SB title?

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by AriS. View Post
    Yes Palmer did "look better" in the second half. A LOT of that goes to David Johnson. The defenses around the league realized who they were dealing with. They had to primarily plan for David. Props to CP and BA in particular for adjusting to what was clear in the first half: Palmer's long ball is not what it used to be. This was not a big strike offense in the second half. BA always talked about "emptying the bullets" by going deep 5-6 times a game but with a limited Oline and a limited CP he couldn't anymore.

    It will be very interesting to observe CP in the first half of this year with many of the previous excuses gone. David Johnson will open up big opportunities in this offense if CP is up to it.
    Again, I have to disagree with you. The real change was the targeting of Gresham in the second half. Palmer threw to him a total of 19 times in the first 8 games and 42 in the second 8. 11 catches vs. 26. It was the emergence of Gresham after it was clear there was nobody other than Fitz and Johnson who were reliable targets that made a huge difference. Both Browns and Floyd were basically none factors for the O. Gresham became the reliable third target that helped Palmer get the ball out faster. It also helped both Johnson and Fitzgerald get some more spacing.

    Palmer should have done this on his own in the first half. The coaching staff did it for him in the second half.
    Last edited by Biggs; 05-19-2017 at 11:58 AM.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinals View Post
    I'd bet this is it for Fitz and Palmer

    Good news is Cards will free up A TON of $.
    Funny, I never view extra cap money as a great thing in the NFL. It's good to sign your own guys, but you never get good value in FA. I'd rather have good draft picks to get good, young, cheap talent. I get way more excited about that than having FA dollars to burn.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1988CARD View Post
    Funny, I never view extra cap money as a great thing in the NFL. It's good to sign your own guys, but you never get good value in FA. I'd rather have good draft picks to get good, young, cheap talent. I get way more excited about that than having FA dollars to burn.
    Keim is quite judicious with the $$$ usually. I have to admit I liked the acquisition of Iupati and Rucker. Seems like Iupati has had his share of health issues lately though.

    Dansby was WAY worth his previous FA contract, see what happens this year...
    The question of Daryl Washington.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardCore View Post
    Keim is quite judicious with the $$$ usually. I have to admit I liked the acquisition of Iupati and Rucker. Seems like Iupati has had his share of health issues lately though.

    Dansby was WAY worth his previous FA contract, see what happens this year...
    Iupati is the extent of Keim "splurging", which is fine and tame compared to what a team like Jacksonville did this year. I don't mind one key FA, or smart, cheap adds like Los, or CJ2k, or Rucker, or Freeney, or Abraham. That's not what I'm talking about. those guys are valuable, cheap, and short term. I'm not excited about having 40m-50m to spend in one offseason. That never works out well.

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