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Thread: Will Palmer be back in 2018?

  1. #11
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    Kyle Odegard‏ @Kyle_Odegard 15 Min.

    Palmer said he has no idea if this is his last year. Will evaluate after the season like he does each year.


    Kyle Odegard‏ @Kyle_Odegard 17 Min.

    Carson Palmer said mentally he was "never close" to retirement. Once he felt better physically, was excited to return.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dry Heat View Post
    In 2016, with an epically beat up Oline, no John or Jaron Brown, and a drunken Floyd Palmer had his third best QBR in the last 10 years. He had the third most number of yards thrown for, short of his second best by only 41 yards and his second best TD/INT ratio of the last 10 years. He even had his third highest number of rushing yards of the last 10 years.

    His 2015 season was the outlier, far above his normal production but a glimpse of what it can be with time in the pocket and weapons. Hopefully the Oline is more solid and healthy this year. I'm a bit concerned at RG and with swapping our tackles, and still not convinced we have C nailed yet. The weapons look to be good. Both Browns back healthy plus the Williams kid and Ellington at WR should help.

    Age catches all of us, but I don't see Palmer being caught yet based on the numbers and I think his pocket passing style will extend his career. We need to limit the hits he took last year. Keep him upright and he could play at age 37 (which he is now until Dec) and 38. Brady says he plans to play to 45.
    His adjusted net yards per attempt were 1st in the league in 2015 and 7th in 2014 and well out of the top 10 in 2016 and well below his historic average. What that shows is he was far less productive on his cumulative drop backs in moving the ball down the field. That takes into account everything.

    The numbers are very hard to read. Teams that lose football games often have very high yards per game which for a QB translate into lots of yards per season. Winning teams don't necessarily have lots of yards, what they have is productive attempts. Palmer wasn't very productive last year when he went to throw the ball. That's based on his historic standards.

    Not that it means anything. Obviously the talent around him wasn't the same as in past years so conditions were very different. Since he does have years of work with lots of good and bad teams it at least gives you some perspective as to how he staked up against himself over lots of attempts.
    Last edited by Biggs; 05-16-2017 at 01:24 PM.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    His adjusted net yards per attempt were 1st in the league in 2015 and 7th in 2014 and well out of the top 10 in 2016 and well below his historic average. What that shows is he was far less productive on his cumulative drop backs in moving the ball down the field. That takes into account everything.

    The numbers are very hard to read. Teams that lose football games often have very high yards per game which for a QB translate into lots of yards per season. Winning teams don't necessarily have lots of yards, what they have is productive attempts. Palmer wasn't very productive last year when he went to throw the ball. That's based on his historic standards.

    Not that it means anything. Obviously the talent around him wasn't the same as in past years so conditions were very different. Since he does have years of work with lots of good and bad teams it at least gives you some perspective as to how he staked up against himself over lots of attempts.
    I attribute the drop in yards per attempt to what Crazy-Canuck pointed out...40+ sacks and 120+ hits. That goes to what I mentioned, injuries on the Oline. We had something like a dozen different players in the five Oline spots. Then take away John Brown deep and Floyd down the sideline, and it's understandable why he was throwing shorter pass attempts to sure handed Fitz, TEs and DJ. A healthy, stronger Oline and a healthy Brown and the Williams kid, plus continuing emergence of Nelson will up the yards per attempt.

    Also, regarding the age thing...despite the many sacks and hits Palmer looked better after the bye than before, even on the deep stuff.

  4. #14
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    That takes into account everything.
    Not quite.

    despite the many sacks and hits Palmer looked better after the bye than before, even on the deep stuff.
    And this is because BA lightened his throwing load by making him sit out on Wednesday practices. Which is not included in the "takes into account everything" statement.

    And as determined from last year's experience CP's number of throws in the off season work is also now being limited. No heavy throwing in March and April like in years past. And won't start throwin' until end of OTAs (last 3 days iirc what the article and video said today).

    Interesting plan BA and CP have now in place for getting CP ready for the season and Not be wore down.

    JosEPh

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JosEPh_II View Post
    Not quite.



    And this is because BA lightened his throwing load by making him sit out on Wednesday practices. Which is not included in the "takes into account everything" statement.

    And as determined from last year's experience CP's number of throws in the off season work is also now being limited. No heavy throwing in March and April like in years past. And won't start throwin' until end of OTAs (last 3 days iirc what the article and video said today).

    Interesting plan BA and CP have now in place for getting CP ready for the season and Not be wore down.

    JosEPh
    Perhaps they are reducing his work load because of age?

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    Perhaps they are reducing his work load because of age?
    Sure. And prudent to do so.

    It was stated that a 37 year old does not need to train the same way as a 24, 25, or 26 yr old does in number of reps. So resting the arm and body so it's at peak performance for game day must take these rep counts into consideration. The effects were plainly visible the last half of last season. This is a logical extension of that experience gained.

    Anyone studied if Tom Brady's throwing reps are as much in the offseason and regular now as he did as a rookie, 2nd year, or 3rd year player?

    JosEPh
    Last edited by JosEPh_II; 05-16-2017 at 04:14 PM.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    Actually there is little to see in his body decline related to his ability to throw the long pass. The things that decline first are very subtle, reflexes and reaction. Palmer's biggest problem that may be related to age is his inability to pull the trigger because he is seeing the openings a little late and isn't comfortable. Palmer continually pulls the ball down and gets out of rhythm. I think that with today's training you can keep your base and body in shape well into your 40's. What you can't condition is reflexes , eyesight and overall balance and coordination. They go and in an elite athlete it doesn't take much to go from great to bench.

    Palmer when he is in rhythm and set has no issue throwing the NFL tree including the deep ball.
    Of course, lots of excellent points. If you want to break down aging it includes all of the above you mentioned. His sack totals and fumbles are just part of that, along with not being able to hit the long pass. When PM was near 40 he literally was not hitting anybody down the field. It was so pathetic even Joseph and Crazy Canuck would probably agree that their was some decline.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dry Heat View Post
    In 2016, with an epically beat up Oline, no John or Jaron Brown, and a drunken Floyd Palmer had his third best QBR in the last 10 years. He had the third most number of yards thrown for, short of his second best by only 41 yards and his second best TD/INT ratio of the last 10 years. He even had his third highest number of rushing yards of the last 10 years.

    His 2015 season was the outlier, far above his normal production but a glimpse of what it can be with time in the pocket and weapons. Hopefully the Oline is more solid and healthy this year. I'm a bit concerned at RG and with swapping our tackles, and still not convinced we have C nailed yet. The weapons look to be good. Both Browns back healthy plus the Williams kid and Ellington at WR should help.

    Age catches all of us, but I don't see Palmer being caught yet based on the numbers and I think his pocket passing style will extend his career. We need to limit the hits he took last year. Keep him upright and he could play at age 37 (which he is now until Dec) and 38. Brady says he plans to play to 45.
    He had some big years with Oakland on losing teams.

    It's very interesting that as the Oline got decimated with injuries and we got into the second half Palmers numbers went up. Why? When we were eliminated from the playoffs the pressure was off and David Johnson started to take the pressure off of Palmer and opened up the field for him. This will continue to help him this season as he ages and declines with his abilities. The numbers could actually be OKAY.

    And in no way can we compare anybody to Brady. He trains like no other. He has a GURU who tags along and stretches out his arm everyday. He eats avocado ice cream and indulges in real live Victoria secret models, not just the magazines like VWcardsfan.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by AriS. View Post
    He had some big years with Oakland on losing teams.

    It's very interesting that as the Oline got decimated with injuries and we got into the second half Palmers numbers went up. Why? When we were eliminated from the playoffs the pressure was off and David Johnson started to take the pressure off of Palmer and opened up the field for him. This will continue to help him this season as he ages and declines with his abilities. The numbers could actually be OKAY.
    He only had two years in Oakland, one yr under 3000 yards and one just over. Agree that playing from behind can result in yards. But his QBR ranged from 80-85 and TD/INT ratio from 1:1 to 1.5:1. Not as good as he has been here. Fact is he's had his best years with AZ, and last year was as good or better than all but that special 2015 year. As has been discussed over and over again, last year wasn't Palmer's fault or age.

    It was:

    1: By far and away special teams play. At least three games lost.

    Then:

    2. Unusually high number of I njuries and lack of consistency on Oline. CP wasn't protected and a pocket passer can't get good numbers when that happens.

    3. The WR corps...went into the season as a strength then quickly lost Brown and Brown, and learned Floyd was a drunken idiot instead of a WR1 in waiting on a contract year. Tough to not have 3 of your top 5 WRs on the field physically or mentally.

    4. The unsuccessful attempt to find a CB2, where two camp injuries to planned potential starters led to starting an unhealthy Bethel, rookie RB/CB Williams, and finally a trade for Cooper. Still an issue this year I'm afraid.

    5. Adding after edit...injuries to important players like Buc and HB...an issue but more of the type every team faces and has to overcome.
    Last edited by Dry Heat; 05-16-2017 at 06:51 PM.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dry Heat View Post

    Age catches all of us, but I don't see Palmer being caught yet based on the numbers and I think his pocket passing style will extend his career. We need to limit the hits he took last year. Keep him upright and he could play at age 37 (which he is now until Dec) and 38. Brady says he plans to play to 45.
    I pretty much agree with this, but the last part is a good indicator as to if he will play beyond this year.

    Brady seems to be very confident about his ability and desire to to play longer than most. Yet with Palmer, we wasn't even sure if he would be back this year. Unlike Brady, Palmer has never even hinted that thinks he can and wants to play into his forties.

    Obviously I could be wrong, but I think both mentally and physically, he thinks this will be his last hurrah and will retire regardless of the outcome this year.

    Hopefully, he will retire a super bowl winner.....
    C:\Users\Tom\Desktop\cat A.jpg

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by AriS. View Post
    Of course, lots of excellent points. If you want to break down aging it includes all of the above you mentioned. His sack totals and fumbles are just part of that, along with not being able to hit the long pass. When PM was near 40 he literally was not hitting anybody down the field. It was so pathetic even Joseph and Crazy Canuck would probably agree that their was some decline.


    He had some big years with Oakland on losing teams.

    It's very interesting that as the Oline got decimated with injuries and we got into the second half Palmers numbers went up. Why? When we were eliminated from the playoffs the pressure was off and David Johnson started to take the pressure off of Palmer and opened up the field for him. This will continue to help him this season as he ages and declines with his abilities. The numbers could actually be OKAY.

    And in no way can we compare anybody to Brady. He trains like no other. He has a GURU who tags along and stretches out his arm everyday. He eats avocado ice cream and indulges in real live Victoria secret models, not just the magazines like VWcardsfan.
    The second half of the season when his numbers went up was largely a result of adjustments on the OL and reducing the downfield passing. We were using the TE because we had to. We were throwing a ton of short passes to Fitz and Johnson. The big downfield pass was limited when it was clear Brown and Floyd weren't part of the mix. It's also why his YPA were down significantly. Your assumption about the pressure being off doesn't take into consideration that there were significant adjustments to the O to compensate that were probably much more significant in his numbers going up.

    You're obsession with state of mind based on pressure completely dismisses thousands of other variables. You have to stop pretending that performance isn't impacted by a team concept. There is something called film that teams use every week to adjust both their defense and O based on opponent and variables like injuries and available personal.

    If in a tight game Palmer hits Floyd in the chest for a first down and Floyd drops it, Palmer didn't choke. His stats show an incompletion on third down. If Fitz puts his body at risk because Palmer threw a ball that brought him into contact and he adjusted to get it, it shows up as a completion.

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